Summer is officially over, but NBA players still have one week left to add the finishing touches to their summer improvement before camp opens. In Part I, we took a look at Kawhi Leonard, and the the recently extended Paul George. In Part II, we'll analyze two heavily critiqued but extremely important big men, Blake Griffin and Serge Ibaka.
The Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder will be vying for pole position in a loaded western conference this season. The Clippers added valuable role players, JJ Redick and Jared Dudley to go with one of league's top coaches, Glenn 'Doc' Rivers. The Thunder will be welcoming Russell Westbrook back after losing him in the 2013 playoffs to a torn meniscus. Both teams are firmly in the group of 8-10 franchises that have a realistic shot to win the title. But ultimately, the fate of the Clippers and Thunder will rest on the shoulders of their 24 year old power forwards.
Offense
Blake Griffin and Serge Ibaka were very efficient offensively this past season. Both posted offensive ratings and win shares well above league average as shown in the table below.
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| from Basketball-Reference.com |
Blake Griffin receives a lot of criticism from talking heads about what they perceive as offensive deficiency. Like most things in life, this perception is only partly accurate. Blake's moves are somewhat mechanical and he lacks the fluidity of former legends, Charles Barkley and Kevin Mchale. When he's not posterizing the likes of Kendrick Perkins and Timofey Mozgov, Blake's game is rarely pleasing to the eye. But beauty and grace do not equal efficiency (ie: Rudy Gay). He's an above average rebounder (although his rebound rate has steadily declined since his rookie season) and he gets to the free throw line at an effective rate. But what truly separates Blake is his elite passing ability. His assist rate* ranked fourth highest out of all power forwards and centers (behind only LeBron, J-Smoove, and Luke Walton). He usually makes the correct pass when the doubled and rarely forces the action. Many don't recognize Blake's passing ability, but it's one of the reasons the Clippers produced the fourth most efficient offense this past season.
Coach Brooks should increase Ibaka's offensive responsibility this year. The departure of Kevin Martin will leave a burden on Ibaka and Reggie Jackson to replace his production. A good example for Ibaka to model is Chris Bosh. Both have similar roles as the third banana on their respective teams and both share the floor with two high usage perimeter scorers. Bosh's usage rate has averaged about 24% during his 3 years in Miami, and if Ibaka reaches that level while maintaining his efficiency, he could take the Thunder offense to new heights this season.
Shot Locations
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| from Hoopdata.com |
Both players are elite finishers in the painted area due to their quickness, jumping ability, and strength at the power forward position. Ibaka shoots above average from practically every area on the court and has major potential as a stretch big with range extending to three point territory. Blake has two main areas of improvement and neither include post play (to the surprise of many). The first is outside shooting. If Blake can improve on his jump shot from 10+ feet to above average levels, it will make defenses more honest about playing him with a cushion and clogging the paint. The second area is free throw shooting. Free throws have plagued Griffin since he entered the league (mostly due to that hitch in his stroke) and if he can improve to above 70%, similar to Tyson Chandler, he could become more aggressive late in games without concern about landing on the foul line.
Defense
Defensively, these players are vastly different. Serge uses his wingspan and great anticipation to block shots at historic levels. Blake is improving defensively but doesn't always use his pogo-stick jumping ability to affect shots on defense.
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| from Basketball-Reference.com |
Griffin posted an above average defensive rating this past season but the Clippers were 9 points worse defensively when he was on the court. Part of his struggle was due to Griffin's lack of awareness and part of it was Vinny Del Negro's lack of a consistent defensive scheme. Doc Rivers should be a big help to the individual development of Griffin's D. Since the 2008 season, Doc's Celtics have finished no lower than 6th in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). The Clips have no one close to Garnett defensively, but if Griffin can fully commit himself to the defensive end and become even half the defender KG was in his prime, the Clippers will post a top 5 defense.
Serge is a truly elite rim protector. He was the second best shot blocker this past season, only behind the enigmatic Larry Sanders. But being an elite shot blocker is just part of the equation to being an elite defender. The other is positioning and awareness, particularly in the pick & roll, where Ibaka is improving every year. Ibaka sometimes lacks the intricate balance of containing the ball-handler and returning to his original assignment, and that late retreat can cause major holes defensively for the Thunder. Similar to the Heat, the Thunder are usually able to make up for late or incorrect rotations due to their elite wing athleticism and Ibaka's special shot-blocking ability. Last season the Thunder ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency, and this was due in large part to 'Air Congo'. If Ibaka can fully realize his potential and improve his pick & roll coverage, the Thunder will be the best defensive team in the league this season.
Both of these young studs will play a major role in how far their teams advance. How much closer are the Thunder and Clips to overtaking the Spurs out west? Only Ibaka and Griffin truly know.
*Assist rate is the estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals a player assisted while on the court.
