March 11, 2014

Shaquille O'Neal - Underrated, Overrated, or Properly Rated?




Shaquille O'Neal was the most dominant basketball player of the modern era (post 1980), but conversations about the G.O.A.T. rarely include the Diesel.  Shaq was and continues to be larger than life, with an extroverted personality to accompany his 7'1" 325 pounds of skill & raw power. 4 championship rings, 3 NBA Finals MVPs, 1 League MVP, and 28,596 points (8th all-time) can't truly quantify his effect on the NBA. To answer the question of Shaq's place in history, we need to go deeper into the numbers and show why it's more likely we see another Michael Jordan than Shaquille O'Neal.


Scoring Efficiency    

The Big Aristotle was the most efficient scorer of all time.  No one comes close.  



The graph above shows the relationship between usage rate (percentage of possessions a player uses while on the court) and effective field goal percentage of the best shooters of all time.  No one was more accurate while being such a large focal point of the offense.  Of the seven seasons in NBA history where a player has averaged over 25 points per game while shooting over 58% from the field, three belong to Shaq.  Many think he only scored by dunking (similar misconceptions exist about Wilt), but he had solid footwork and a soft touch around the hoop.  The agility he possessed for a center was unfair.  Watch him shred Sacramento below, scoring 46 points with skilled moves and textbook footwork.




Big Game Performer


Is Shaquille O'Neal the greatest Finals performer of all-time?  Few players have shown up to the biggest stage and stole the show like the Big Fella.  Shaq played in six NBA Finals, winning four and losing two. The greatest Finals performer is likely Bill Russell, owner of 11 championship rings and an undefeated record in Game 7s.  His defensive impact transcended numbers, especially since blocks and steals were not recorded during his time.  The next two players on the list? That would be Jordan & Shaq in some order. Just look at their basic career Finals stats:
  







Shaq reached higher level when playing on the game's biggest stage, improving in all categories from his regular season averages.  His 2000 NBA Finals performance may be the greatest of all time, as he dominated the Pacers with 38/17/2/1/3 over six games.

Durability

The Big Aristotle was not only efficient & clutch, but his best talent may have been his durability.  He played in 79% of available regular season games, a crazy number for someone who at times weighed close to 400 pounds.  He avoided serious leg injuries throughout his career, only slowed by minor knee and toe injuries in 1997 and 2002.  

Health is a skill, maybe the most important for athletes.  Bill Walton, Yao Ming, and Greg Oden are examples of 7 footers who had incredibly bright careers dimmed by injuries.  O'Neal was truly blessed, able to struggle with weight issues and still avoid knee, foot, and ligament problems that plague many large centers.  O'Neal put up amazing numbers, but few are more awe inspiring than the 79% availability rate he showed throughout his career.

Defensive Effort

Shaq had two weaknesses, poor foul shooting (53%) and inconsistent defensive effort. His foul shooting has been discussed extensively (and somewhat unfairly as he had a knack for making them at the end of games).  To quantify his free throw impediment, if he averaged just 70% for his career he would have amassed almost 2000 more points.

Shaq's defensive effort was far more intriguing.  He never led the league in rebounding or shot blocking and considering his size and mobility, that's inexcusable.  Using the eye test, Shaq rarely seemed to give 100% effort on defense, always looking as if he reserved full effort for only the most important games (discussed earlier).  Shaq led his teams to nine top-10 finishes in defensive efficiency, including the #1 defense during his 2000 MVP season.  Shaq only contributed to two top-5 defenses in his 18 year career, showing that he didn't fully reach his potential on that end.

If O'Neal fully committed to defense, maybe he wins more championships, maybe he doesn't. In the end Shaq played on his terms, making movies and rap albums all while continuing to dominate the league.

Verdict

Underrated. Big men don't sell shoes or garner enough respect in G.O.A.T convos, but Shaq should firmly be on every 'All-Time' list. 

*All data is from Basketball-Reference.com