The regular season is so close that you can smell the aroma from the hardwood. Preseason has started and only a few weeks remain before we get the first glimpse of returning all-stars and revamped rosters. Derrick Rose is back to attacking the paint after a full season of knee rehab. Kevin Love is back and will soon be posting 20-20 games at an arena near you. The Brooklyn Nets, Houston Rockets, and Golden State Warriors all made huge additions and will be exciting to watch. Next summer will bring a loaded free agent class and the best NBA draft since 2008 (and maybe 2003). But what I'm most excited about this season is predicting which underrated players will overachieve and breakout in 2014.
Jimmy Butler, Patrick Beverly, and Paul Millsap were highly valuable last season and due to greater roles or a change of scenery, each is poised for a big year.
Jimmy Butler, SG Chicago Bulls
Bruce Bowen. James Posey. Raja Bell. Shane Battier. These are the founding fathers of one of the most valuable assets in the NBA, the "Three & D" wing. Each shot above average from beyond the arc and were effective at defending the opposing team's best player. If they were to have an imaginary basketball offspring, that player would be Jimmy Butler. Butler made a debut to national consciousness during last year's Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Miami Heat. He played with a tough and physical edge that few wing defenders posses beyond Tony Allen. He hounded LeBron all series and held him to a playoff low 44% FG% over the five game series. Butler also gave Miami trouble offensively, shooting a blistering 42% from three and 95% from the line, while averaging over 44 mpg. But a five game playoff sample alone doesn't put him on this prestigious list, he improved his offensive impact drastically from his first to second year. His shooting efficiency improved across the board as shown below.
Butler averaged 26 minutes per game last season, while starting in only 20 games. He will start for the Bulls from game 1 and should greatly improve Chicago on both sides of the ball. Butler has the potential to be an elite "Three & D" wing due to his great athleticism and seemingly perfect fit next to Rose. The Bulls are a team on the rise for two main reasons: we know the first (Mr. Rose), but the second and most overlooked is the emergence and potential breakout of Jimmy Butler.
Patrick Beverley, PG Houston Rockets
Patrick Beverley reminds me of a hungry pitbull. Every Rockets game, he harasses opposing point guards with relentless tenacity only rivaled by Avery Bradley. He was drafted 42nd overall in the 2009 draft and played a few years in Europe before making it to the league. He made his NBA debut for the Rockets January 2013 and improved throughout the season. Beverly averaged only 17 minutes per game, but was very efficient on a per-minute basis. He was an above average point guard both offensively and defensively as shown below.
At only 24, Beverley has room to improve and his defensive value is exactly what Houston needs as it tries to improve from last years 16th ranked defense. While Beverley was on the court, Houston's defensive efficiency was 98.8, which would have been the third best rank in the entire league last season. In addition, Houston's offense was 2 points more efficient per 100 possessions while he was on the court according to NBA.com.
Beverley will be in the Rockets' guard rotation and has a great chance the begin the year as the starting point guard (allowing Lin to be an offensive spark off the bench). Beverley is sure to burst onto the national radar by season's end.
Paul Millsap, PF Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks had an outstanding offseason for the second straight year. After trading Joe Johnson last season and allowing Josh Smith to leave via free agency, the Hawks were seemingly at a fork in the road as to what route they would take toward rebuilding. Many thought they would try to bottom out and attempt to get the highest pick possible, while also getting rid of Al Horford for a plethora of young assets and picks. The Hawks instead chose the best of both worlds, to keep their best players while signing supporting players to reasonable contracts, therefore maintaining future financial flexibility (similar to the Indiana Pacers a few years ago). Signing Paul Millsap was one of the top 3 moves of the summer, not only for the contract terms (2 years, 19M) but also because Millsap is such an incredibly effective power forward.
Maybe it's his quiet image or playing for the small market Jazz, but after 7 years in the league Millsap still doesn't get the recognition that he deserves. Paul is solid in every aspect. He shoots well from all over the court and he's a plus defender despite his undersized stature at the power forward position. Over the past 3 seasons, Millsap has averaged 18/9/3 per 36 minutes. The following chart shows how Millsap ranked among power forwards in a number of categories by displaying his percentile ranking last season.
Millsap was over 50th percentile in every category shown above, even more proof that Atlanta made a great decision in signing him this past summer. The Hawks will surprise many this year and should firmly secure an eastern playoff spot. Paul will turn 29 this season, but his consistent production will be a steadying force to the Hawks as they rebuild toward contention.
