Contender Spotlight: Toronto Raptors

By: Khalid Leader

"You come at the King, you best not miss"

The Toronto Raptors are the reigning NBA champions and are quietly in position to repeat in 2020.  As we spotlight contenders for the season restart, Toronto is the appropriate place to begin.  The Raptors own the third highest net rating in the league (+6.0 points per 100 poss) despite having extended injury absences to key rotation players.  Before the NBA suspension in March, they won 23 of their last 30 games (46-18 overall record, 2nd in the Eastern Conference).

Can a team lose a top 3 player on earth (Kawhi Leonard) and improve the following year?  Let's dive into the elements of Toronto's success and forecast how they will translate in the 2020 playoffs.

Defense

#2 Overall (105.5 rating)

The Raptors defense is the baseline for their success.  They have an abundance of B+ to A- defenders while devoid of a 1st team All-Defense talent like Anthony Davis or Joel Embiid.  Toronto's roster lacks a weak link that could be picked on by a wing creator in a playoff series (think LeBron hunting Steph on switches in the 2016 Finals).  Look at the sprawling size of their expected playoff rotation: 

from ESPN.com

Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry, though small in height have the requisite weight, strength, and intelligence to be plus defenders.  Ranking second in defense is even more impressive given that Marc Gasol missed nearly half of the season with a left hamstring injury.  When Gasol is on the court, they posted a defensive rating of 101, nearly 5 points better than their overall rating.

Nick Nurse has been very creative in his two years as head coach, unafraid to try just about anything on defense.  They experimented with lots of zone (behind only Miami in zone poss/gm) but help-heavy man defense is the main entree'.  Their communication and aggressive rotations force opponents into loads of bad shots and turnovers (2nd in forced turnovers/gm).

The one concerning area for the Raptors defense has been opponent three-point shooting.  Toronto gives up the most corner threes in the league (by a hefty margin) and it could hurt them in a matchup against a high volume 3pt shooting team in the playoffs.

Offense

#14 Overall (111.6 rating)

The Raptors are deadly in transition for the fifth consecutive year.  Their ability to force turnovers fuels easy transition opportunities.  Kyle Lowry is excellent at passing ahead off misses or makes as shown in the clip below:

The biggest issue for Toronto is half-court offense.  They mirror last year's Raptors with a near identical net rating, but their half-court inefficiency is the most notable difference (dropped from 8th in half court pts/play in 2019 to 18th in 2020).

Losing Kawhi was a huge blow to the offense, but Siakam's drop off from the paint and mid-range also contributed to the lull:

from Cleaningtheglass.com

Siakam has blossomed into an elite player in spite of this decline, increasing his usage and three-point volume.  If he can efficiently score in late clock situations and continue to expand as a primary creator, he could make the most difficult jump in the league: from star to superstar.

Key Role Players

OG Anunoby

(Per Game: 10.7 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.6 ast)

OG reminds me of my favorite character from The Wire, Wee-bay Brice. They're both solid shooters, play the background and have dope names.  

Anunoby missed the 2019 playoffs with an emergency appendectomy but he's primed to break out as a premier 3&D wing (career high 38% from 3 this year).  He'll also likely be the primary defender on the Greek Freak in a potential Bucks East Finals match up.  His 3pt shooting and ability to score efficiently on mismatches will be paramount for the Raptors' playoff success.

Norman Powell

(Per Game: 16.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.8 ast)

Norman Powell has developed into one of the most important players on the Raptors. He looks eerily similar to Donovan Mitchell with a 6'3" frame, bowlegged stance, and foremost athleticism. He lacks the passing and off the dribble creation that makes Mitchell a star but he's an ultra-efficient secondary creator (43% on catch and shoot 3s).  Since Jan 1st, he averaged 20 ppg on 64% true shooting.

What started as a season of uncertainty has morphed into one of the league's biggest surprises.  With creative coaching and deep talent, the Raptors have all the makings of a legit championship contender.  Ultimately, I believe their defense, experience, and Siakam's continued rise will drive them to the NBA Finals for a 2nd consecutive year.

*All stats are from Cleaningtheglass.com and NBA.com/stats