Shaquille O'Neal - Underrated, Overrated, or Properly Rated?

Shaquille O'Neal was the most dominant basketball player of the modern era (post 1980), but conversations about the G.O.A.T. rarely include the Diesel.  Shaq was and continues to be larger than life, with an extroverted personality to accompany his 7'1" 325 pounds of skill & raw power. 4 championship rings, 3 NBA Finals MVPs, 1 League MVP, and 28,596 points (8th all-time) can't truly quantify his effect on the NBA. To answer the question of Shaq's place in history, we need to go deeper into the numbers and show why it's more likely we see another Michael Jordan than Shaquille O'Neal.

Scoring Efficiency    

The Big Aristotle was the most efficient scorer of all time.  No one comes close.  

The graph above shows the relationship between usage rate (percentage of possessions a player uses while on the court) and effective field goal percentage of the best shooters of all time.  No one was more accurate while being such a large focal point of the offense.  Of the seven seasons in NBA history where a player has averaged over 25 points per game while shooting over 58% from the field, three belong to Shaq.  Many think he only scored by dunking (similar misconceptions exist about Wilt), but he had solid footwork and a soft touch around the hoop.  The agility he possessed for a center was unfair.  Watch him shred Sacramento below, scoring 46 points with skilled moves and textbook footwork.

Big Game Performer

Is Shaquille O'Neal the greatest Finals performer of all-time?  Few players have shown up to the biggest stage and stole the show like the Big Fella.  Shaq played in six NBA Finals, winning four and losing two. The greatest Finals performer is likely Bill Russell, owner of 11 championship rings and an undefeated record in Game 7s.  His defensive impact transcended numbers, especially since blocks and steals were not recorded during his time.  The next two players on the list? That would be Jordan & Shaq in some order. Just look at their basic career Finals stats:
  

Shaq reached higher level when playing on the game's biggest stage, improving in all categories from his regular season averages.  His 2000 NBA Finals performance may be the greatest of all time, as he dominated the Pacers with 38/17/2/1/3 over six games.

Durability

The Big Aristotle was not only efficient & clutch, but his best talent may have been his durability.  He played in 79% of available regular season games, a crazy number for someone who at times weighed close to 400 pounds.  He avoided serious leg injuries throughout his career, only slowed by minor knee and toe injuries in 1997 and 2002.  

Health is a skill, maybe the most important for athletes.  Bill Walton, Yao Ming, and Greg Oden are examples of 7 footers who had incredibly bright careers dimmed by injuries.  O'Neal was truly blessed, able to struggle with weight issues and still avoid knee, foot, and ligament problems that plague many large centers.  O'Neal put up amazing numbers, but few are more awe inspiring than the 79% availability rate he showed throughout his career.

Defensive Effort

Shaq had two weaknesses, poor foul shooting (53%) and inconsistent defensive effort. His foul shooting has been discussed extensively (and somewhat unfairly as he had a knack for making them at the end of games).  To quantify his free throw impediment, if he averaged just 70% for his career he would have amassed almost 2000 more points.

Shaq's defensive effort was far more intriguing.  He never led the league in rebounding or shot blocking and considering his size and mobility, that's inexcusable.  Using the eye test, Shaq rarely seemed to give 100% effort on defense, always looking as if he reserved full effort for only the most important games (discussed earlier).  Shaq led his teams to nine top-10 finishes in defensive efficiency, including the #1 defense during his 2000 MVP season.  Shaq only contributed to two top-5 defenses in his 18 year career, showing that he didn't fully reach his potential on that end.

If O'Neal fully committed to defense, maybe he wins more championships, maybe he doesn't. In the end Shaq played on his terms, making movies and rap albums all while continuing to dominate the league.

Verdict

Underrated. Big men don't sell shoes or garner enough respect in G.O.A.T convos, but Shaq should firmly be on every 'All-Time' list. 

*All data is from Basketball-Reference.com

Underrated Overachievers

The regular season is so close that you can smell the aroma from the hardwood. Preseason has started and only a few weeks remain before we get the first glimpse of returning all-stars and revamped rosters.  Derrick Rose is back to attacking the paint after a full season of knee rehab.  Kevin Love is back and will soon be posting 20-20 games at an arena near you.  The Brooklyn Nets, Houston Rockets, and Golden State Warriors all made huge additions and will be exciting to watch.  Next summer will bring a loaded free agent class and the best NBA draft since 2008 (and maybe 2003). But what I'm most excited about this season is predicting which underrated players will overachieve and breakout in 2014.

Jimmy Butler, Patrick Beverly, and Paul Millsap were highly valuable last season and due to greater roles or a change of scenery, each is poised for a big year.


Jimmy Butler, SG Chicago Bulls

Bruce Bowen. James Posey. Raja Bell. Shane Battier.  These are the founding fathers of one of the most valuable assets in the NBA, the "Three & D" wing.  Each shot above average from beyond the arc and were effective at defending the opposing team's best player.  If they were to have an imaginary basketball offspring, that player would be Jimmy Butler.  Butler made a debut to national consciousness during last year's Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Miami Heat.  He played with a tough and physical edge that few wing defenders posses beyond Tony Allen.  He hounded LeBron all series and held him to a playoff low 44% FG% over the five game series.  Butler also gave Miami trouble offensively, shooting a blistering 42% from three and 95% from the line, while averaging over 44 mpg.  But a five game playoff sample alone doesn't put him on this prestigious list, he improved his offensive impact drastically from his first to second year.  His shooting efficiency improved across the board as shown below.  

Butler averaged 26 minutes per game last season, while starting in only 20 games. He will start for the Bulls from game 1 and should greatly improve Chicago on both sides of the ball.  Butler has the potential to be an elite "Three & D" wing due to his great athleticism and seemingly perfect fit next to Rose.  The Bulls are a team on the rise for two main reasons: we know the first (Mr. Rose), but the second and most overlooked is the emergence and potential breakout of Jimmy Butler.


Patrick Beverley, PG Houston Rockets

Patrick Beverley reminds me of a hungry pitbull.  Every Rockets game, he harasses opposing point guards with relentless tenacity only rivaled by Avery Bradley.  He was drafted 42nd overall in the 2009 draft and played a few years in Europe before making it to the league.  He made his NBA debut for the Rockets January 2013 and improved throughout the season. Beverly averaged only 17 minutes per game, but was very efficient on a per-minute basis.  He was an above average point guard both offensively and defensively as shown below.

At only 24, Beverley has room to improve and his defensive value is exactly what Houston needs as it tries to improve from last years 16th ranked defense.  While Beverley was on the court, Houston's defensive efficiency was 98.8, which would have been the third best rank in the entire league last season.  In addition, Houston's offense was 2 points more efficient per 100 possessions while he was on the court according to NBA.com.

Beverley will be in the Rockets' guard rotation and has a great chance the begin the year as the starting point guard (allowing Lin to be an offensive spark off the bench).  Beverley is sure to burst onto the national radar by season's end.


Paul Millsap, PF Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks had an outstanding offseason for the second straight year.  After trading Joe Johnson last season and allowing Josh Smith to leave via free agency, the Hawks were seemingly at a fork in the road as to what route they would take toward rebuilding.  Many thought they would try to bottom out and attempt to get the highest pick possible, while also getting rid of Al Horford for a plethora of young assets and picks. The Hawks instead chose the best of both worlds, to keep their best players while signing supporting players to reasonable contracts, therefore maintaining future financial flexibility (similar to the Indiana Pacers a few years ago). Signing Paul Millsap was one of the top 3 moves of the summer, not only for the contract terms (2 years, 19M) but also because Millsap is such an incredibly effective power forward.

Maybe it's his quiet image or playing for the small market Jazz, but after 7 years in the league Millsap still doesn't get the recognition that he deserves.  Paul is solid in every aspect.  He shoots well from all over the court and he's a plus defender despite his undersized stature at the power forward position.  Over the past 3 seasons, Millsap has averaged 18/9/3 per 36 minutes. The following chart shows how Millsap ranked among power forwards in a number of categories by displaying his percentile ranking last season.

Millsap was over 50th percentile in every category shown above, even more proof that Atlanta made a great decision in signing him this past summer.  The Hawks will surprise many this year and should firmly secure an eastern playoff spot.  Paul will turn 29 this season, but his consistent production will be a steadying force to the Hawks as they rebuild toward contention.

NBA Summer School: Blake Griffin & Serge Ibaka

Summer is officially over, but NBA players still have one week left to add the finishing touches to their summer improvement before camp opens.  In Part I, we took a look at Kawhi Leonard, and the the recently extended Paul George.  In Part II, we'll analyze two heavily critiqued but extremely important big men, Blake Griffin and Serge Ibaka.

The Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder will be vying for pole position in a loaded western conference this season. The Clippers added valuable role players, JJ Redick and Jared Dudley to go with one of league's top coaches, Glenn 'Doc' Rivers. The Thunder will be welcoming Russell Westbrook back after losing him in the 2013 playoffs to a torn meniscus. Both teams are firmly in the group of 8-10 franchises that have a realistic shot to win the title.  But ultimately, the fate of the Clippers and Thunder will rest on the shoulders of their 24 year old power forwards.


Offense

Blake Griffin and Serge Ibaka were very efficient offensively this past season. Both posted offensive ratings and win shares well above league average as shown in the table below.

from Basketball-Reference.com

Blake Griffin receives a lot of criticism from talking heads about what they perceive as offensive deficiency. Like most things in life, this perception is only partly accurate.  Blake's moves are somewhat mechanical and he lacks the fluidity of former legends, Charles Barkley and Kevin Mchale.  When he's not posterizing the likes of Kendrick Perkins and Timofey Mozgov, Blake's game is rarely pleasing to the eye.  But beauty and grace do not equal efficiency (ie: Rudy Gay).  He's an above average rebounder (although his rebound rate has steadily declined since his rookie season) and he gets to the free throw line at an effective rate.  But what truly separates Blake is his elite passing ability.  His assist rate* ranked fourth highest out of all power forwards and centers (behind only LeBron, J-Smoove, and Luke Walton).  He usually makes the correct pass when the doubled and rarely forces the action.  Many don't recognize Blake's passing ability, but it's one of the reasons the Clippers produced the fourth most efficient offense this past season.

Coach Brooks should increase Ibaka's offensive responsibility this year. The departure of Kevin Martin will leave a burden on Ibaka and Reggie Jackson to replace his production.  A good example for Ibaka to model is Chris Bosh.  Both have similar roles as the third banana on their respective teams and both share the floor with two high usage perimeter scorers.  Bosh's usage rate has averaged about 24% during his 3 years in Miami, and if Ibaka reaches that level while maintaining his efficiency, he could take the Thunder offense to new heights this season.

Shot Locations

from Hoopdata.com

Both players are elite finishers in the painted area due to their quickness, jumping ability, and strength at the power forward position.  Ibaka shoots above average from practically every area on the court and has major potential as a stretch big with range extending to three point territory.  Blake has two main areas of improvement and neither include post play (to the surprise of many).  The first is outside shooting.  If Blake can improve on his jump shot from 10+ feet to above average levels, it will make defenses more honest about playing him with a cushion and clogging the paint.  The second area is free throw shooting.  Free throws have plagued Griffin since he entered the league (mostly due to that hitch in his stroke) and if he can improve to above 70%, similar to Tyson Chandler, he could become more aggressive late in games without concern about landing on the foul line.        


Defense

Defensively, these players are vastly different.  Serge uses his wingspan and great anticipation to block shots at historic levels.  Blake is improving defensively but doesn't always use his pogo-stick jumping ability to affect shots on defense.      

from Basketball-Reference.com

Griffin posted an above average defensive rating this past season but the Clippers were 9 points worse defensively when he was on the court.  Part of his struggle was due to Griffin's lack of awareness and part of it was Vinny Del Negro's lack of a consistent defensive scheme.  Doc Rivers should be a big help to the individual development of Griffin's D.  Since the 2008 season, Doc's Celtics have finished no lower than 6th in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). The Clips have no one close to Garnett defensively, but if Griffin can fully commit himself to the defensive end and become even half the defender KG was in his prime, the Clippers will post a top 5 defense.  

Serge is a truly elite rim protector.  He was the second best shot blocker this past season, only behind the enigmatic Larry Sanders.  But being an elite shot blocker is just part of the equation to being an elite defender.  The other is positioning and awareness, particularly in the pick & roll, where Ibaka is improving every year.  Ibaka sometimes lacks the intricate balance of containing the ball-handler and returning to his original assignment, and that late retreat can cause major holes defensively for the Thunder.  Similar to the Heat, the Thunder are usually able to make up for late or incorrect rotations due to their elite wing athleticism and Ibaka's special shot-blocking ability.  Last season the Thunder ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency, and this was due in large part to 'Air Congo'. If Ibaka can fully realize his potential and improve his pick & roll coverage, the Thunder will be the best defensive team in the league this season.

Both of these young studs will play a major role in how far their teams advance.  How much closer are the Thunder and Clips to overtaking the Spurs out west? Only Ibaka and Griffin truly know.  



 *Assist rate is the estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals a player assisted while on the court.

NBA Summer School: Kawhi Leonard & Paul George

The offseason is the most valuable time of the year for many NBA players. The time between July and September is when NBA players can improve their game before the start of a new season.  Summertime is when players make a leap from solid to good or from good to great by putting in the necessary hard work. The summer was when Jordan sculpted his fadeaway and when Kobe met with Hakeem the Dream to add post moves and improve footwork.  This is a time that players will either waste or use for individual development.  Over the next few weeks, I'll evaluate some of the most promising under-25 players and look at areas for improvement both offensively and defensively.

Today, we'll look at two of the best small forwards in the league, Paul George (23) and Kawhi Leonard (22).

Offense

Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are major components to championship contenders and each came very close to raising the trophy last June. The following chart shows how they compared in a number of offensive categories this past 2012 - 2013 season.    

from Basketball-Reference.com

The Four Factors, or  "Four Factors of Basketball Success" are the four statistical categories that hoop analytics godfather, Dean Oliver, found that most contribute to NBA success.  Paul George shot at a league average clip of 49%, while Leonard shot an elite 56% eFG% in 2013 (in comparison, Kevin Durant also had an effective field goal percentage of  56% in 2013)*. 

Both players are solid rebounders for their position, and get to the free throw line at an average rate. George had a poor turnover rate while Leonard was better than average, but this can be partly attributed to their respective roles.  George had a bigger role on the Pacers this past season, in large part to Danny Granger's season long knee trouble.  George had to create offense for Indiana all season and quickly adjust to being option #1.  Meanwhile, Leonard was able to take advantage of his smaller role with the Spurs by focusing more on finishing and less on creating plays for his teammates.   

Paul George's offensive rating was right at league average (104), which was mainly due to his high turnover rate and average shooting numbers.  The Pacers should have more firepower this upcoming season with the return of Danny Granger and the signing of Luis Scola, and both will likely reduce the offensive burden on George.  Better shot selection (more on this below) from George and less ball handling responsibilities should greatly improve the Pacers offense this upcoming season.  

Leonard had an excellent offensive rating in 2013 due to his low usage and his elite shooting numbers.  The Spurs could benefit from giving Leonard a larger role in the offense and limiting the usage rate of the aging and less efficient players such as Manu Ginobli and Gary Neal (who is now on the Milwaukee Bucks).       

         

Shot Locations

from Hoopdata.com

The chart above shows the shooting stats by location for each player.  Both players finish at the rim very well due to their elite athleticism and improving skill.  They both shot at a league average clip from three, but George could benefit from limiting the number of long two's he attempts (especially from 16-23 feet, the least efficient area on the court).  Both players should increase the number of attempts in the paint and at the free throw line by using their elite quickness and leaping ability to put more pressure on the defense.  Lastly, increasing the number of three point attempts (especially from the corners, the most efficient area on the court) can help both players improve offensively this upcoming season.

Defense

What truly makes these two special is their defense.  Besides LeBron and Tony Allen, these may be the two best perimeter defenders in the league.  They each have great lateral quickness and active hands.  The following chart shows a few of their defensive statistics from last season.    

from Basketball-Reference.com

George and Leonard had almost identical steal rates due to their great anticipation of passing lanes.  What stands out from watching film of both players is how many deflections they rack up and how well they move laterally to stay with their defensive assignments.  Both areas are difficult to quantify with available stats, but the recent news of motion tracking SportVU cameras will soon change this.

Overall defensively, both players are stellar, with Leonard rating seven points below league average and George ranking even better at nine points stingier than average.  There aren't many areas of critique for either player other than to add muscle to their slight frames in order to bang with larger forwards such as LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.  Both players have room to grow and if they do, should improve their team's chance at hoisting next years Larry O'Brien trophy.


*Effective field goal percentage takes a player's field goal percentage and gives proper weight to the fact that three's are more valuable than two's.