Uncut Gem: Duncan Robinson

Photo by Daniel A. Varela / Miami Herald

By: Khalid Leader

"They shooting, aw made you look"

Duncan Robinson ascended from relative obscurity to become the third best player on a championship contender.  Duncan went undrafted out of Michigan in 2018 and played most of his rookie season in the G League, appearing in only 15 NBA games.  Fast forward to the 2020 season, he's now a full-time starter shooting 45% on 8 threes per game.

Great shooters come in different archetypes: the Kerr-like specialist, the Korver-like role player, and the rarefied air of the Klay-like superstar.  Where does Duncan Robinson fall in this spectrum and how valuable will he be toward Miami's playoff run?

Team Impact

The Miami Heat have been a mess offensively since LeBron departed in 2014.  Never ranking greater than #13th, they've had a middling offense year after year due to the lack of an efficient go-to scorer and quality 3pt shooting:

from Cleaningtheglass.com

Miami totally changed course this season, rising to the 7th ranked offense.  The most significant upgrade was signing a true star in Jimmy Butler (he drove the #1 ranked FT rate shown above) while the other refinement was unleashing Duncan Robinson.  Duncan was simply the best shooter in the league this year (per Kirk Goldsberry, Duncan led all players in jump shot efficiency at 66.5 eFG%).

When Duncan is on the floor, Miami's offense rises near the 2nd ranked Clippers and when he's off, they drop toward the 24th ranked T-Wolves.  No other player on the Heat had larger on/off court impact.  Check out the respect that defenses give Duncan, opening opportunities for his teammates to thrive:

Every team has quality shooters, but what makes Duncan a notch above most is a quick release and shot diversity.  He can step into shots with a 1-2 plant or utilize a hop to gain balance and explosion on his release.

Optimal Setting

Duncan's marksmanship can add value to any team, but his ceiling is maximized on the Heat due to his chemistry with Bam Adebayo.  Bam has a unique skill set where his main strengths of dribbling coordination and passing vision mix well with elite shooters.  

The dribble hand-off is the foundation of Miami's offense, but when Bam and Duncan are the participants, you get one of the most efficient plays in the league.  Miami is relentless with their attack, often running it multiple times on a single possession until the defense cracks:

Duncan is no longer a secret and teams have started giving him the Steph treatment, shading the high side of every screen.  Duncan has improved his ability to read the defense and back cut for easy layups.  He's even shooting 80% at the rim this season (albeit on low volume).  Secondary drives and timely cuts will be imperative as he commands more attention in the playoffs.

Is Duncan Robinson the next Klay Thompson?

Unlikely, primarily due to his defensive limitations.  Klay is a plus on-ball defender with the strength and lateral agility to guard three positions.  Duncan has relatively slow feet and a knack for picking up cheap fouls defending with his hands. 

from Cleaningtheglass.com

Even with those limitations, Robinson is by no means a bad defender.  He fights on defense and is attentive off the ball.  Miami was better defensively with him on-court, although that is mostly attributable to his minutes aligning with Jimmy and Bam.  As he improves his strength, he could even play minutes at power forward, enabling greater lineup flexibility around Miami's All-Stars.  

With Jimmy, Bam, promising youth, and max cap space in 2021, Miami has one of the brightest futures in the league. Duncan's salary (just $1.6M) and age (26) makes Miami's outlook even rosier.  Given Bam and Jimmy's shooting limitations, Duncan is the perfect 3rd wheel.  How Micky Arison and Pat Riley proceed will be fascinating, but any decision to add to the roster should prioritize keeping Duncan's talents on Biscayne Blvd for years to come.

*All stats are from Cleaningtheglass.com and NBA.com/stats

Contender Spotlight: Toronto Raptors

By: Khalid Leader

"You come at the King, you best not miss"

The Toronto Raptors are the reigning NBA champions and are quietly in position to repeat in 2020.  As we spotlight contenders for the season restart, Toronto is the appropriate place to begin.  The Raptors own the third highest net rating in the league (+6.0 points per 100 poss) despite having extended injury absences to key rotation players.  Before the NBA suspension in March, they won 23 of their last 30 games (46-18 overall record, 2nd in the Eastern Conference).

Can a team lose a top 3 player on earth (Kawhi Leonard) and improve the following year?  Let's dive into the elements of Toronto's success and forecast how they will translate in the 2020 playoffs.

Defense

#2 Overall (105.5 rating)

The Raptors defense is the baseline for their success.  They have an abundance of B+ to A- defenders while devoid of a 1st team All-Defense talent like Anthony Davis or Joel Embiid.  Toronto's roster lacks a weak link that could be picked on by a wing creator in a playoff series (think LeBron hunting Steph on switches in the 2016 Finals).  Look at the sprawling size of their expected playoff rotation: 

from ESPN.com

Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry, though small in height have the requisite weight, strength, and intelligence to be plus defenders.  Ranking second in defense is even more impressive given that Marc Gasol missed nearly half of the season with a left hamstring injury.  When Gasol is on the court, they posted a defensive rating of 101, nearly 5 points better than their overall rating.

Nick Nurse has been very creative in his two years as head coach, unafraid to try just about anything on defense.  They experimented with lots of zone (behind only Miami in zone poss/gm) but help-heavy man defense is the main entree'.  Their communication and aggressive rotations force opponents into loads of bad shots and turnovers (2nd in forced turnovers/gm).

The one concerning area for the Raptors defense has been opponent three-point shooting.  Toronto gives up the most corner threes in the league (by a hefty margin) and it could hurt them in a matchup against a high volume 3pt shooting team in the playoffs.

Offense

#14 Overall (111.6 rating)

The Raptors are deadly in transition for the fifth consecutive year.  Their ability to force turnovers fuels easy transition opportunities.  Kyle Lowry is excellent at passing ahead off misses or makes as shown in the clip below:

The biggest issue for Toronto is half-court offense.  They mirror last year's Raptors with a near identical net rating, but their half-court inefficiency is the most notable difference (dropped from 8th in half court pts/play in 2019 to 18th in 2020).

Losing Kawhi was a huge blow to the offense, but Siakam's drop off from the paint and mid-range also contributed to the lull:

from Cleaningtheglass.com

Siakam has blossomed into an elite player in spite of this decline, increasing his usage and three-point volume.  If he can efficiently score in late clock situations and continue to expand as a primary creator, he could make the most difficult jump in the league: from star to superstar.

Key Role Players

OG Anunoby

(Per Game: 10.7 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.6 ast)

OG reminds me of my favorite character from The Wire, Wee-bay Brice. They're both solid shooters, play the background and have dope names.  

Anunoby missed the 2019 playoffs with an emergency appendectomy but he's primed to break out as a premier 3&D wing (career high 38% from 3 this year).  He'll also likely be the primary defender on the Greek Freak in a potential Bucks East Finals match up.  His 3pt shooting and ability to score efficiently on mismatches will be paramount for the Raptors' playoff success.

Norman Powell

(Per Game: 16.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.8 ast)

Norman Powell has developed into one of the most important players on the Raptors. He looks eerily similar to Donovan Mitchell with a 6'3" frame, bowlegged stance, and foremost athleticism. He lacks the passing and off the dribble creation that makes Mitchell a star but he's an ultra-efficient secondary creator (43% on catch and shoot 3s).  Since Jan 1st, he averaged 20 ppg on 64% true shooting.

What started as a season of uncertainty has morphed into one of the league's biggest surprises.  With creative coaching and deep talent, the Raptors have all the makings of a legit championship contender.  Ultimately, I believe their defense, experience, and Siakam's continued rise will drive them to the NBA Finals for a 2nd consecutive year.

*All stats are from Cleaningtheglass.com and NBA.com/stats

Top 20 Difference Makers in the NBA

By: Khalid Leader

"Once again back is the incredible" 

With the NBA nearing an imminent and risky bubble experiment July 30th at Disney World, there's no better time to get back in the lab and cook up something marvelous for your reintroduction to the league.    

Which players truly drive winning?  

2013 LeBron was arguably the greatest difference maker we've seen in recent years, bringing all-time value on both ends.  Bron's athleticism and game-to-game impact peaked seven years ago but he still has the Lakers as the betting favorite for the 2020 title.  Kawhi is the reigning Finals MVP and has emerged as a true power broker in the way he brought PG to LA.  The Greek Freak is striding toward a 2nd consecutive MVP.  Over the past decade this may be the most open year not only for the NBA title, but for the top player crown.

Let's start by pouring one out for the fallen Warriors who'd be locks to make this list if healthy:

Steph Curry (Hand)

Klay Thompson (ACL)

Kevin Durant (Achilles)*

*last played for the Warriors, close enough

Honorable Mention

• Devin Booker
• Bradley Beal
• Karl-Anthony Towns

All three players provide immense offensive production and not much else.  Booker has made great strides in recent years to improve his free throw rate and facilitation, while Beal has emerged as a threat to score 40+ on any given night.  Both struggle defensively with off-ball awareness, often late in rotations and indifferent toward getting back in transition.  KAT is likely the second greatest shooting big of all time (shooting 41% this season on 8 3s/gm), but his team is significantly better on defense without him on the floor.  You're simply not getting an invitation to the party if your team lost 17 straight games that you appeared in this season.

• Ben Simmons

The toughest omission from the list, Simmons ranks first in steals/gm and third in deflections/gm, using his size and speed to wreak havoc on opponents like an NFL free safety.  He missed the cut solely for his continued shooting deficiencies.  His unwillingness to shoot outside of the paint hampers the Sixers' offense in playoff situations, where he is often relegated to the dunker spot (Sixers management didn't help matters by signing Al Horford this past summer....only 3yrs/$81 Mill remaining...yikes).

• Zion Williamson

In his brief 19 game rookie debut, Zion showed poor defensive awareness and looked to be in sub-optimal shape, but he still managed to average 24ppg on 62% True Shooting.  Barring injury, he will make the varsity list for the next 15 years.

Top 20

20. Rudy Gobert

Rudy is the last of a dying breed, a Dikembe Mutombo like rim protector whose greatest offensive skill may be screen setting.  His defense is A1 yet again, but will he be schemed off the floor by an elite perimeter shooting team in the playoffs?  Utah should try to avoid the small-ball Rockets at all costs.

19.  Khris Middleton

After signing a max $180 million contract, Middleton returned to have a career year. Posting a rare 50%/40%/90% and leading Milwaukee to a 5-2 record in games without Giannis. Milwaukee's title run could hinge on Middleton's career shooting efficiency carrying to Orlando.

18. Donovan Mitchell

Mitchell continued to impress with steady progression in year 3. He's finishing better in the restricted area, showcasing Wade-like euro steps and smooth floaters.  His defense regressed heavily this season, thus keeping him out of the top 15, but he has all the tools to be a solid point of attack defender in the coming years.

17. Paul George

Paul George is the ideal archetype for the #2 player on a championship team. His ability to defend four positions and score without dominating the ball (shooting 40% on nearly 5 catch and shoot 3s/gm) is what every team looks to pair with their alpha creator.

16. Kyle Lowry

Lowry is built more like Cole Brown than an NBA All-Star but he's an absolute savant in Toronto's heavy-help defensive scheme (Raptors are 2nd overall in defensive rating). Leading the league in charges drawn/gm, Lowry even mucked up the All-Star game, taking 3 charges for the sake of winning.

15. Chris Paul

How is he still this valuable in year 15? CP3 bounced back after a rough year in Houston to lead the Thunder to the precipice of a top 4 seed. He's still able to run the Pick n Roll with deadly efficiency (1.09 PPP, 57% EFG as PnR ball handler).  CP3 snaking a screen to get to his foul line jumper is an underrated all time move.

14. Russell Westbrook

Russ is having an All-NBA level year following a slow start. Since Jan 1st, he's averaging 32 ppg on 53% FG.  Russ leads the league in drives per game, basically turning into the point guard version of Giannis.

13. Bam Adebayo

Bam's main value add is defensive versatility. Strong enough to bang with Embiid while having the lateral agility to contain elite guards like Bradley Beal.  Mix in his ability to grab and go in transition like 2016 Draymond and you have almost everything teams are looking for in a modern center (still needs to expand his shooting range).  

12. Jayson Tatum

Tatum is ascending at a rapid pace.  He was playing at top 5 level in February (31 ppg on 64% TS) before cooling down a bit in March. He's an elite off ball wing defender already, but his ability to hit pull up 3s (5 per game at a blistering 40%) makes him special.

11. Luka Doncic

Luka kicked in the door his sophomore season to (likely) finish top 5 in MVP voting. He's the fulcrum of the best offense in the league by a wide margin (115 Points/100 Possessions, over 2 points better than the second place Rockets). His large frame and tight handle allow him to get into the paint and generate easy buckets for teammates. Just 21 years old, Luka is the youngest player on this list.

10. Pascal Siakam

The 2019 Most Improved Player took another leap this season and replaced most of the void left by Kawhi's departure.  His isolation scoring always pops on film, with the ability to post up smaller defenders or beat larger players to the basket with funky finishes.  He is the main reason that Toronto is my pick to represent the East this season (more to come on that).

9. Nikola Jokic

The Joker is one of the most fun and interesting players in the league.  Everything about him is just different, from his physical appearance to his otherworldly passing vision.  My favorite element of his game is the quirky off-balance floater. They never look like they're going in, but they seemingly always do.

8. Joel Embiid

Joel may be the greatest singular defender in the league, able to cover ground with rare gracefulness for a 7'0 behemoth.  He's in a poor offensive situation in Philly, often playing without any real floor spacers, but he should reduce (if not completely desert) the 3 pointers. Sometimes the game is simple, Embiid taking nearly four 3s per game is a poor allocation of his giant frame and soft touch (especially when he's a 32% career 3pt shooter).

7. Jimmy Butler

Jimmy Butler is thriving in the perfect situation for his attitude and skill set.  Butler is supplementing career high assist and rebound rates with nearly 10 free throw attempts per game.  Even while struggling from 3 this season (just 25%), his efficiency has remained high (58% True Shooting) due to his ability to get downhill and draw fouls in bunches.

6. Damian Lillard

Dame's round 1 dagger against OKC in the 2019 playoffs embodies his entire career.  He's a cold blooded closer, crafty scorer, and the best deep three-point shooter in the league (38% from >28 feet away).  His pull up proficiency sets up his entire game, allowing him to get to the rim and finish with underrated explosiveness.  He is quietly having a 1st ballot Hall of Fame career.

5. James Harden

The step back 3 is Harden's version of the sky hook (totally unique and unstoppable).  When you combine the step back with his proclivity to shoot free throws, you get the most dangerous scorer in the league.  What makes Harden so dangerous in the regular season could also be hindering him in post season play (his 3pt % has declined in the last four playoffs).  Carrying such a heavy burden every regular season seems to wear on his legs, I'd love to see Harden occasionally call on the midrange game that we saw more of pre-D'Antoni.

4. Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis has always been the ultimate "play finisher" as a premier lob threat and post scorer.  Somehow just 27 years old, he is continuing to improve by shooting more threes and making plays as a primary ball-handler.  The Lakers should explore using Davis in more creative ways as LeBron ages.  His talent continues to drop jaws nearly 10 years in.

3. Kawhi Leonard

The closest player we have to '97 MJ.  Kawhi can pull up on a dime or get all the way to the rim with subtle shoulder blows.  His ability to read the defense a rotation ahead and find open shooters is the latest addition he's made in 2020 (career high 5 assists/gm).

 

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo

The heir to the throne, Giannis is in pole position to dominate the league for the next decade.  The Freak has a great chance to bring home MVP and DPOY (defensive player of the year) this season (only MJ and Olajuwon have won both in the same season).  Only one question remains: Can Giannis (and Eric Bledsoe for that matter) punish teams when they wall off the paint in the playoffs?

1. LeBron James 

Still the top dog of the league.  LeBron is the ultimate 'Queen on the chessboard' who can toggle between any offensive role and still provide elite efficiency.  The gap he has over Giannis & Kawhi is razor thin, but Bron takes pole position heading into the 2020 playoffs. 

Shaquille O'Neal - Underrated, Overrated, or Properly Rated?

Shaquille O'Neal was the most dominant basketball player of the modern era (post 1980), but conversations about the G.O.A.T. rarely include the Diesel.  Shaq was and continues to be larger than life, with an extroverted personality to accompany his 7'1" 325 pounds of skill & raw power. 4 championship rings, 3 NBA Finals MVPs, 1 League MVP, and 28,596 points (8th all-time) can't truly quantify his effect on the NBA. To answer the question of Shaq's place in history, we need to go deeper into the numbers and show why it's more likely we see another Michael Jordan than Shaquille O'Neal.

Scoring Efficiency    

The Big Aristotle was the most efficient scorer of all time.  No one comes close.  

The graph above shows the relationship between usage rate (percentage of possessions a player uses while on the court) and effective field goal percentage of the best shooters of all time.  No one was more accurate while being such a large focal point of the offense.  Of the seven seasons in NBA history where a player has averaged over 25 points per game while shooting over 58% from the field, three belong to Shaq.  Many think he only scored by dunking (similar misconceptions exist about Wilt), but he had solid footwork and a soft touch around the hoop.  The agility he possessed for a center was unfair.  Watch him shred Sacramento below, scoring 46 points with skilled moves and textbook footwork.

Big Game Performer

Is Shaquille O'Neal the greatest Finals performer of all-time?  Few players have shown up to the biggest stage and stole the show like the Big Fella.  Shaq played in six NBA Finals, winning four and losing two. The greatest Finals performer is likely Bill Russell, owner of 11 championship rings and an undefeated record in Game 7s.  His defensive impact transcended numbers, especially since blocks and steals were not recorded during his time.  The next two players on the list? That would be Jordan & Shaq in some order. Just look at their basic career Finals stats:
  

Shaq reached higher level when playing on the game's biggest stage, improving in all categories from his regular season averages.  His 2000 NBA Finals performance may be the greatest of all time, as he dominated the Pacers with 38/17/2/1/3 over six games.

Durability

The Big Aristotle was not only efficient & clutch, but his best talent may have been his durability.  He played in 79% of available regular season games, a crazy number for someone who at times weighed close to 400 pounds.  He avoided serious leg injuries throughout his career, only slowed by minor knee and toe injuries in 1997 and 2002.  

Health is a skill, maybe the most important for athletes.  Bill Walton, Yao Ming, and Greg Oden are examples of 7 footers who had incredibly bright careers dimmed by injuries.  O'Neal was truly blessed, able to struggle with weight issues and still avoid knee, foot, and ligament problems that plague many large centers.  O'Neal put up amazing numbers, but few are more awe inspiring than the 79% availability rate he showed throughout his career.

Defensive Effort

Shaq had two weaknesses, poor foul shooting (53%) and inconsistent defensive effort. His foul shooting has been discussed extensively (and somewhat unfairly as he had a knack for making them at the end of games).  To quantify his free throw impediment, if he averaged just 70% for his career he would have amassed almost 2000 more points.

Shaq's defensive effort was far more intriguing.  He never led the league in rebounding or shot blocking and considering his size and mobility, that's inexcusable.  Using the eye test, Shaq rarely seemed to give 100% effort on defense, always looking as if he reserved full effort for only the most important games (discussed earlier).  Shaq led his teams to nine top-10 finishes in defensive efficiency, including the #1 defense during his 2000 MVP season.  Shaq only contributed to two top-5 defenses in his 18 year career, showing that he didn't fully reach his potential on that end.

If O'Neal fully committed to defense, maybe he wins more championships, maybe he doesn't. In the end Shaq played on his terms, making movies and rap albums all while continuing to dominate the league.

Verdict

Underrated. Big men don't sell shoes or garner enough respect in G.O.A.T convos, but Shaq should firmly be on every 'All-Time' list. 

*All data is from Basketball-Reference.com

Underrated Overachievers

The regular season is so close that you can smell the aroma from the hardwood. Preseason has started and only a few weeks remain before we get the first glimpse of returning all-stars and revamped rosters.  Derrick Rose is back to attacking the paint after a full season of knee rehab.  Kevin Love is back and will soon be posting 20-20 games at an arena near you.  The Brooklyn Nets, Houston Rockets, and Golden State Warriors all made huge additions and will be exciting to watch.  Next summer will bring a loaded free agent class and the best NBA draft since 2008 (and maybe 2003). But what I'm most excited about this season is predicting which underrated players will overachieve and breakout in 2014.

Jimmy Butler, Patrick Beverly, and Paul Millsap were highly valuable last season and due to greater roles or a change of scenery, each is poised for a big year.


Jimmy Butler, SG Chicago Bulls

Bruce Bowen. James Posey. Raja Bell. Shane Battier.  These are the founding fathers of one of the most valuable assets in the NBA, the "Three & D" wing.  Each shot above average from beyond the arc and were effective at defending the opposing team's best player.  If they were to have an imaginary basketball offspring, that player would be Jimmy Butler.  Butler made a debut to national consciousness during last year's Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Miami Heat.  He played with a tough and physical edge that few wing defenders posses beyond Tony Allen.  He hounded LeBron all series and held him to a playoff low 44% FG% over the five game series.  Butler also gave Miami trouble offensively, shooting a blistering 42% from three and 95% from the line, while averaging over 44 mpg.  But a five game playoff sample alone doesn't put him on this prestigious list, he improved his offensive impact drastically from his first to second year.  His shooting efficiency improved across the board as shown below.  

Butler averaged 26 minutes per game last season, while starting in only 20 games. He will start for the Bulls from game 1 and should greatly improve Chicago on both sides of the ball.  Butler has the potential to be an elite "Three & D" wing due to his great athleticism and seemingly perfect fit next to Rose.  The Bulls are a team on the rise for two main reasons: we know the first (Mr. Rose), but the second and most overlooked is the emergence and potential breakout of Jimmy Butler.


Patrick Beverley, PG Houston Rockets

Patrick Beverley reminds me of a hungry pitbull.  Every Rockets game, he harasses opposing point guards with relentless tenacity only rivaled by Avery Bradley.  He was drafted 42nd overall in the 2009 draft and played a few years in Europe before making it to the league.  He made his NBA debut for the Rockets January 2013 and improved throughout the season. Beverly averaged only 17 minutes per game, but was very efficient on a per-minute basis.  He was an above average point guard both offensively and defensively as shown below.

At only 24, Beverley has room to improve and his defensive value is exactly what Houston needs as it tries to improve from last years 16th ranked defense.  While Beverley was on the court, Houston's defensive efficiency was 98.8, which would have been the third best rank in the entire league last season.  In addition, Houston's offense was 2 points more efficient per 100 possessions while he was on the court according to NBA.com.

Beverley will be in the Rockets' guard rotation and has a great chance the begin the year as the starting point guard (allowing Lin to be an offensive spark off the bench).  Beverley is sure to burst onto the national radar by season's end.


Paul Millsap, PF Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks had an outstanding offseason for the second straight year.  After trading Joe Johnson last season and allowing Josh Smith to leave via free agency, the Hawks were seemingly at a fork in the road as to what route they would take toward rebuilding.  Many thought they would try to bottom out and attempt to get the highest pick possible, while also getting rid of Al Horford for a plethora of young assets and picks. The Hawks instead chose the best of both worlds, to keep their best players while signing supporting players to reasonable contracts, therefore maintaining future financial flexibility (similar to the Indiana Pacers a few years ago). Signing Paul Millsap was one of the top 3 moves of the summer, not only for the contract terms (2 years, 19M) but also because Millsap is such an incredibly effective power forward.

Maybe it's his quiet image or playing for the small market Jazz, but after 7 years in the league Millsap still doesn't get the recognition that he deserves.  Paul is solid in every aspect.  He shoots well from all over the court and he's a plus defender despite his undersized stature at the power forward position.  Over the past 3 seasons, Millsap has averaged 18/9/3 per 36 minutes. The following chart shows how Millsap ranked among power forwards in a number of categories by displaying his percentile ranking last season.

Millsap was over 50th percentile in every category shown above, even more proof that Atlanta made a great decision in signing him this past summer.  The Hawks will surprise many this year and should firmly secure an eastern playoff spot.  Paul will turn 29 this season, but his consistent production will be a steadying force to the Hawks as they rebuild toward contention.

NBA Summer School: Blake Griffin & Serge Ibaka

Summer is officially over, but NBA players still have one week left to add the finishing touches to their summer improvement before camp opens.  In Part I, we took a look at Kawhi Leonard, and the the recently extended Paul George.  In Part II, we'll analyze two heavily critiqued but extremely important big men, Blake Griffin and Serge Ibaka.

The Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder will be vying for pole position in a loaded western conference this season. The Clippers added valuable role players, JJ Redick and Jared Dudley to go with one of league's top coaches, Glenn 'Doc' Rivers. The Thunder will be welcoming Russell Westbrook back after losing him in the 2013 playoffs to a torn meniscus. Both teams are firmly in the group of 8-10 franchises that have a realistic shot to win the title.  But ultimately, the fate of the Clippers and Thunder will rest on the shoulders of their 24 year old power forwards.


Offense

Blake Griffin and Serge Ibaka were very efficient offensively this past season. Both posted offensive ratings and win shares well above league average as shown in the table below.

from Basketball-Reference.com

Blake Griffin receives a lot of criticism from talking heads about what they perceive as offensive deficiency. Like most things in life, this perception is only partly accurate.  Blake's moves are somewhat mechanical and he lacks the fluidity of former legends, Charles Barkley and Kevin Mchale.  When he's not posterizing the likes of Kendrick Perkins and Timofey Mozgov, Blake's game is rarely pleasing to the eye.  But beauty and grace do not equal efficiency (ie: Rudy Gay).  He's an above average rebounder (although his rebound rate has steadily declined since his rookie season) and he gets to the free throw line at an effective rate.  But what truly separates Blake is his elite passing ability.  His assist rate* ranked fourth highest out of all power forwards and centers (behind only LeBron, J-Smoove, and Luke Walton).  He usually makes the correct pass when the doubled and rarely forces the action.  Many don't recognize Blake's passing ability, but it's one of the reasons the Clippers produced the fourth most efficient offense this past season.

Coach Brooks should increase Ibaka's offensive responsibility this year. The departure of Kevin Martin will leave a burden on Ibaka and Reggie Jackson to replace his production.  A good example for Ibaka to model is Chris Bosh.  Both have similar roles as the third banana on their respective teams and both share the floor with two high usage perimeter scorers.  Bosh's usage rate has averaged about 24% during his 3 years in Miami, and if Ibaka reaches that level while maintaining his efficiency, he could take the Thunder offense to new heights this season.

Shot Locations

from Hoopdata.com

Both players are elite finishers in the painted area due to their quickness, jumping ability, and strength at the power forward position.  Ibaka shoots above average from practically every area on the court and has major potential as a stretch big with range extending to three point territory.  Blake has two main areas of improvement and neither include post play (to the surprise of many).  The first is outside shooting.  If Blake can improve on his jump shot from 10+ feet to above average levels, it will make defenses more honest about playing him with a cushion and clogging the paint.  The second area is free throw shooting.  Free throws have plagued Griffin since he entered the league (mostly due to that hitch in his stroke) and if he can improve to above 70%, similar to Tyson Chandler, he could become more aggressive late in games without concern about landing on the foul line.        


Defense

Defensively, these players are vastly different.  Serge uses his wingspan and great anticipation to block shots at historic levels.  Blake is improving defensively but doesn't always use his pogo-stick jumping ability to affect shots on defense.      

from Basketball-Reference.com

Griffin posted an above average defensive rating this past season but the Clippers were 9 points worse defensively when he was on the court.  Part of his struggle was due to Griffin's lack of awareness and part of it was Vinny Del Negro's lack of a consistent defensive scheme.  Doc Rivers should be a big help to the individual development of Griffin's D.  Since the 2008 season, Doc's Celtics have finished no lower than 6th in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). The Clips have no one close to Garnett defensively, but if Griffin can fully commit himself to the defensive end and become even half the defender KG was in his prime, the Clippers will post a top 5 defense.  

Serge is a truly elite rim protector.  He was the second best shot blocker this past season, only behind the enigmatic Larry Sanders.  But being an elite shot blocker is just part of the equation to being an elite defender.  The other is positioning and awareness, particularly in the pick & roll, where Ibaka is improving every year.  Ibaka sometimes lacks the intricate balance of containing the ball-handler and returning to his original assignment, and that late retreat can cause major holes defensively for the Thunder.  Similar to the Heat, the Thunder are usually able to make up for late or incorrect rotations due to their elite wing athleticism and Ibaka's special shot-blocking ability.  Last season the Thunder ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency, and this was due in large part to 'Air Congo'. If Ibaka can fully realize his potential and improve his pick & roll coverage, the Thunder will be the best defensive team in the league this season.

Both of these young studs will play a major role in how far their teams advance.  How much closer are the Thunder and Clips to overtaking the Spurs out west? Only Ibaka and Griffin truly know.  



 *Assist rate is the estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals a player assisted while on the court.

NBA Summer School: Kawhi Leonard & Paul George

The offseason is the most valuable time of the year for many NBA players. The time between July and September is when NBA players can improve their game before the start of a new season.  Summertime is when players make a leap from solid to good or from good to great by putting in the necessary hard work. The summer was when Jordan sculpted his fadeaway and when Kobe met with Hakeem the Dream to add post moves and improve footwork.  This is a time that players will either waste or use for individual development.  Over the next few weeks, I'll evaluate some of the most promising under-25 players and look at areas for improvement both offensively and defensively.

Today, we'll look at two of the best small forwards in the league, Paul George (23) and Kawhi Leonard (22).

Offense

Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are major components to championship contenders and each came very close to raising the trophy last June. The following chart shows how they compared in a number of offensive categories this past 2012 - 2013 season.    

from Basketball-Reference.com

The Four Factors, or  "Four Factors of Basketball Success" are the four statistical categories that hoop analytics godfather, Dean Oliver, found that most contribute to NBA success.  Paul George shot at a league average clip of 49%, while Leonard shot an elite 56% eFG% in 2013 (in comparison, Kevin Durant also had an effective field goal percentage of  56% in 2013)*. 

Both players are solid rebounders for their position, and get to the free throw line at an average rate. George had a poor turnover rate while Leonard was better than average, but this can be partly attributed to their respective roles.  George had a bigger role on the Pacers this past season, in large part to Danny Granger's season long knee trouble.  George had to create offense for Indiana all season and quickly adjust to being option #1.  Meanwhile, Leonard was able to take advantage of his smaller role with the Spurs by focusing more on finishing and less on creating plays for his teammates.   

Paul George's offensive rating was right at league average (104), which was mainly due to his high turnover rate and average shooting numbers.  The Pacers should have more firepower this upcoming season with the return of Danny Granger and the signing of Luis Scola, and both will likely reduce the offensive burden on George.  Better shot selection (more on this below) from George and less ball handling responsibilities should greatly improve the Pacers offense this upcoming season.  

Leonard had an excellent offensive rating in 2013 due to his low usage and his elite shooting numbers.  The Spurs could benefit from giving Leonard a larger role in the offense and limiting the usage rate of the aging and less efficient players such as Manu Ginobli and Gary Neal (who is now on the Milwaukee Bucks).       

         

Shot Locations

from Hoopdata.com

The chart above shows the shooting stats by location for each player.  Both players finish at the rim very well due to their elite athleticism and improving skill.  They both shot at a league average clip from three, but George could benefit from limiting the number of long two's he attempts (especially from 16-23 feet, the least efficient area on the court).  Both players should increase the number of attempts in the paint and at the free throw line by using their elite quickness and leaping ability to put more pressure on the defense.  Lastly, increasing the number of three point attempts (especially from the corners, the most efficient area on the court) can help both players improve offensively this upcoming season.

Defense

What truly makes these two special is their defense.  Besides LeBron and Tony Allen, these may be the two best perimeter defenders in the league.  They each have great lateral quickness and active hands.  The following chart shows a few of their defensive statistics from last season.    

from Basketball-Reference.com

George and Leonard had almost identical steal rates due to their great anticipation of passing lanes.  What stands out from watching film of both players is how many deflections they rack up and how well they move laterally to stay with their defensive assignments.  Both areas are difficult to quantify with available stats, but the recent news of motion tracking SportVU cameras will soon change this.

Overall defensively, both players are stellar, with Leonard rating seven points below league average and George ranking even better at nine points stingier than average.  There aren't many areas of critique for either player other than to add muscle to their slight frames in order to bang with larger forwards such as LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.  Both players have room to grow and if they do, should improve their team's chance at hoisting next years Larry O'Brien trophy.


*Effective field goal percentage takes a player's field goal percentage and gives proper weight to the fact that three's are more valuable than two's.